Monday, October 24, 2005

Syriasly, What Happens Next?

I thought it was all natural disasters from here out, but the report from the UN that fingers most of the miggest bereted and bescarfed heads below the PM of Syria leads me to wonder when the shiz will hit that fan, and just how Bushy will botch it for the locals and us.

I mean, W and Condo are calling for hasty meetings, speedy conclusions, and so on from the UN. Events have evolved such that they need to like the UN for a while, and given the likelihood of a dozen or two White House creeps doing the perp walk for Fitzgerald and Co., they will unironically take even the point of a scimitar in trying to deflect the treason/corruption shitstorm headed towards DC.

So...W finds much new love for the UN, and then what? Some thoughts on the possibilities...

  1. Seems unlikely that the UN would want to, but if they thought Assad and friends had to go, the US can't do much but cheer from the sidelines, thanks to the bogus strategy in Iraq. We're stuck there, unless there was some sort of timetable for a UN takeover in Syria that coincides with a withdrawal from Iraq (for which there is no timetable or plan).
  2. UN has recommended that the investigation, which is not complete, be finished up by Lebanon, with help from the "international community". That would seem to let Bush saber-rattle or finger-wag or flop-the-US-cock-on-the-table while the investigation gets wrapped up. It also allows him to hide behind a convenient faux "cooperation among law abiding nations" stance for a while, and then blame the UN as a failed institution if they can't get together and decide to invade like real men. That might work on some rubes here, but staying in Iraq would be even harder to defend to everyone else.
  3. UN does decide to take down the Syrian Baathists' "Open For Business" sign, and we can't join in because we're still kicking so much righteous ass in Iraq and Afghanistan that we can't be bothered. That would be a major face on W, especially among True Believers in the GOP who want to reshape the Middle East, bring on the Second Coming, Fedex capitalism and the flag up the ass of anyone they can bend over a Humvee, etc.
  4. We pull out of Afghanistan to join a UN-backed Syrian liberation and collateral damage resolution. Afghanistan freaks out and goes all civil war, all the time. People here decide they can handle that (we already have, for the most part), but it makes for more "issues" down the road with Pakistan, India, Iraq, Al-Qaeda, the Roadmap and so on, after we totally lose track of what little clue we currently have about anything or anyone in Afghanistan.
  5. Juan Cole, a superinformed and smart blogfessor, thinks the likely outcome of regime change in Syria (sans UN intervention or overt invasion) would be a Muslim Brotherhood state. Allow me to say, not that tight; likely as bad or worse than Assad for Syrians, their neighbors, and us. This could also be known as the "US and UN Do Nothing" scenario...but that would never happen, riiiight?
More scenarios anyone? Israel? Russia? The 'Stans? More electoral fraud in the USA as a GOP bailout in '06/'08?

It's not a fun view, but it is in our future. It is not going to just fade away.


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